EMV = Probability x Impact
- P
- Probability of the event (%)
- I
- Monetary impact if it occurs (USD)
- > 0 — Net opportunity
- = 0 — Neutral
- < 0 — Net threat
Worked example
A vendor integration has a 30% chance of a late delivery that would cost $80,000 in rework and penalties.
EMV = 0.30 x -80,000 = -24,000
Reserve $24,000 of contingency for this single risk, or spend less than that to mitigate it.
Try: A vendor integration has a 30% chance of a late delivery that would cost $80,000 in rework and penalties.